QTM1310   Probability and Statistics

Spring Semester 2000

wpe1.jpg (15578 bytes) Professor Joseph F. Aieta

Office: 217 Babson Hall
Office Hours: 
Monday    3:30 - 5:00 PM,
Thursday  3:30 - 5:00 PM 
and by appointment

Tel:   781 – 239 - 4370

Fax: 781 – 239 - 6416

Email:
aieta@babson.edu

Week:       1    2    3    4    5      7   8    9    10    11    12    13    14    15

The official weekly list of course activities is updated periodically and should be visited regularly. It can be accessed in two ways: (1) directly from an Internet browser by entering the address http://roger.babson.edu/aieta/qtm1310 or (2) from a student workspace on the electronic campus. Students can use   http://ecampus.babson.edu. to access course materials such as this syllabus overview, the official weekly list of course activities in the syllabus, announcements, assignments, voting, discussion, etc. Note that course related ecampus announcements and information on assignments could be directed by each student to appear in e-mail. Important files will also be stored on the campus network in the network directory K:\faculty\aieta\qtm1310.

This first course in Probability and Statistics acquaints students with the fundamentals of descriptive and inferential analysis, sampling issues, and regression analysis. Students are introduced to the major concepts and tools for collecting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data. Common themes include making observations about patterns and departures from patterns, recognizing theoretical patterns in models based upon probability, and making inferences about populations from samples.

Required Text: Berenson and Levine (BL7)

Basic Business Statistics: Concepts and Applications, Prentice Hall, 1999, Seventh Edition

Suggested Materials: Student Solution Manual to the 7th Edition

Overview of Topic Coverage:

  • Introduction to "statistical thinking", the difference between descriptive and inferential statistics, sources of data, types of data, introduction to Minitab
  • Presenting data effectively in tables and charts, ethical and aesthetic aspects, summary measures of central tendency, variation and shape, exploratory data analysis
  • Basic probability ---simple and conditional, discrete probability distributions, the normal probability distribution
  • Estimation based upon sampling distributions of means and proportions
  • Confidence intervals for the mean and proportions, determining sample size, hypothesis testing methodology, hypothesis tests for a single mean and proportion, chi-square test for independence of categorical variables. Ethical issues
  • Simple linear regression and correlation. Ethical issues
  • Two sample testing

 

Components of final grade: Approximate weight
Exams: 30 - 35 %
Quizzes: (The lowest quiz score will be dropped). 10 - 15 %
Homework, Projects, and Lab Reports 15 - 20 %
Participation and Professionalism: 10 - 15%
Final Exam: 25 - 30 %
Total:
100%

Organization:

You must obtain a 3-ring binder to contain your notes, homework, handouts, quizzes, and tests. Keeping this binder up to date will prove invaluable before term exams and the final exam. It is important that you keep careful records of your work, both written and electronic, so that you can see your progress related to the Babson competencies. Bring your calculator with you to each class. There will be extensive use of Minitab statistical software and some use of Excel spreadsheets. Use of laptops will be encouraged and will be required for certain classes. If you do not own a laptop then notify the instructor beforehand and arrive early to each class that requires laptop use.

Homework, Lab Reports, and Projects:

Work outside of class is an essential part of the course. You may do homework individually or in teams; however each student must submit his/her own homework in a cardboard pocket folder with your name and section number printed on the front of the folder. Answers to many exercises in the text are provided in the back of the book. They are meant to give you feedback and should be used judiciously. Answers alone are generally not sufficient on written homework. In most cases you must describe a process and include computer output with a written interpretation of results. Work must be done on standard size (8.5" by 11") paper and is due at the beginning of class. Your name (printed or typed) and the due date should appear as a header on the upper right of the front page. Before you hand in any written assignment make sure that the sheets are in proper sequence and then staple them. All written homework should be neat, legible and organized. Certain lab reports and projects will require Minitab output embedded in a word processing document. Any assignment or project that does not meet the specified requirements or is not submitted on the due-date announced in class or on ecampus, will not receive credit. If you wish to have copies of a recent homework paper to study for a quiz or a test (before it comes back from the grader) then you should make a photocopy.

Lab reports and other projects may be done in groups of three students or less. Good teamwork trains you to work in groups and allows an exchange of ideas among team members. It is essential that everyone in a team actively participates and is able to do all of the work on their own. If you choose to do lab work in a team then your team must hand in exactly one document containing a title page with the names and signatures of all group members (the signatures validate that each member made a significant contribution to the report). Students should be prepared to give a written assessment of the contributions of each team member. Other guidelines and policies regarding group projects and lab reports will be discussed in class.

Participation, Integrity, and Professionalism:

You are expected to attend each class, to arrive on time, and to remain until the class lecture is complete. In the case of an unavoidable absence, students are expected to inform me by e-mail (aieta@babson.edu) or by telephone (x4370). If you do leave a message on my voice mail and would like me to call you back then clearly give your name and telephone number at the beginning of your message. A participation assessment will be based upon the quality of your questions/answers in class and on your overall attitude and approach to the course. Be sure that you are familiar with Babson’s policies concerning academic honesty and integrity, which are stated in the undergraduate catalog. Also, be sure that you become familiar with my personal expectations regarding civil class behavior (I will discuss this at the beginning of the semester). Inappropriate class behavior will lower the Participation and Professionalism component of your grade.

Quizzes, Tests, and Makeups:

Ten-point quizzes will be given throughout the course on Fridays. Generally, notes are not permitted on quizzes and little or no partial credit is given. If you miss a quiz for any reason, it cannot be made up. Your lowest quiz grade, however, will not be counted. There will be two 60-75 minute term examinations plus a two-hour final examination. Term exams are tentatively scheduled for Feb 28 and April 14. The final exam is currently scheduled for May 9. Exact dates, times and locations will be announced in class and posted electronically. For each term exam and for the final exam, students may bring one sheet of their own handwritten or typewritten notes on both sides of 8.5 by 11-inch paper. A photocopy of someone else’s note sheet will not be allowed. These notes will be collected. Some partial credit will be given on exams. You will not be allowed more time if you arrive late to a quiz or test. Makeups on exams will be considered only if you have a legitimate written excuse approved by the Office of Class Deans. A medical emergency, an automobile accident, or the death of an immediate family member or close friend are examples of legitimate excuses. Air travel on the day of a scheduled class is not a legitimate excuse so please avoid making last minute travel arrangements around spring break. Assuming that the Office of Class Deans confirms your legitimate excuse, you must take responsibility for providing me with an explanation by e-mail and you must make up the exam at the earliest possible agreed upon time.

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Connections to Babson’s List of Core Competencies

Competencies Related Activities
1A: Graduates have frameworks for understanding the individual; the natural and technological environment; political, economic, and social realities; and the interrelations among all of these
3B:  Accept responsibility for actions

3G: Intellectually confident and independent and make thoughtful decisions.

2F: Communicate logically and persuasively in spoken and written form

 

All course activities:



All course activities:

All course activities:


Uses integrated software tools to produce professional looking reports

2E: Work in teams, exercise leadership, and negotiate differences.

4E: Understand leadership, team processes, and group dynamics.



Lab reports and other collaborative projects

 

 

1F: Understand that ethics are an integral force of professional considerations

2G:  Think ethically.
Data presentation and description, hypothesis testing, simple linear regression, decisions about data cleansing and outliers

Select proper graphical displays; use appropriate statistical techniques ( e.g. avoid data snooping in hypothesis testing)

 

2A: Organize, synthesize, evaluate, interrogate, and interpret information from verbal, numerical, and visual sources

2B: Formulate problems, identify opportunities, construct and test hypotheses, and apply and extend theory

2C: Establish criteria, discover and weigh alternatives, and arrive at decisions;

Data presentation, hypothesis testing, simple linear regression

Define objectives, select appropriate tests, arrive at appropriate conclusions or decisions, and synthesize information.

Interpret interval estimates for population parameters, interpret coefficients in simple linear regression

 

2D: Tolerate ambiguity, and be conscious of the limits of logic.

 

 

Hypothesis testing ; parametric tests; simple linear regression

Deal with ill-defined problems

4B: Understand and apply functional skills for managerial operations. Parametric tests; simple linear regression.

Locate and analyze real data
Give management interpretations in context

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